2018—2022 年东莞市大朗镇肺结核流行特征及时空分布情况

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis in Dalang Town, Dongguan , 2018-2022

摘要:

目的 了解东莞市大朗镇肺结核流行特征和时空分布情况，为制定肺结核精准防治策略提供参考依据。 方法 收集 2018—2022 年东莞市大朗镇肺结核报告发病数据和人口信息，采用SPSS 25.0 进行定性资料统计学分析、 ArcGIS 10.8 进行全局和局部自相关分析和SaTScan 10.1 软件进行时空扫描分析。结果 2018—2022 年东莞市大朗镇 肺结核年均发病率为 46.31/10 万，差异有统计学意义（χ 2 趋势=102.69，P<0.001），整体呈下降趋势；发病人数中男性构成 比为 69.81%，发病年龄中位数为 35 岁；各村/社区年均发病率为 18.46/10 万~96.69/10 万，全局空间自相关Moran I 值 为-0.0280~0.1095，其中 2019 年与 2021 年差异有统计学意义（P<0.05），存在空间聚集性；局部自相关分析显示“高高”聚类和“低-高”聚类多位于镇中心的村（社区）；时空扫描结果显示存在 1 个可能聚集性区域，时间为 2018—2019 年，主要分布在镇内中部村（社区）。结论 该文在东莞市大朗镇以村（社区）尺度下分析了区域性肺结核流行特征和时空 分布特征，为肺结核实际防控工作提供了参考。

Abstract:

Objective To study the epidemiological characteristics and spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis in Dalang Town, Dongguan, and provide reference for the formulation of accurate tuberculosis prevention and control strategies. Methods The report incidence data and population information of tuberculosis in Dalang Town, Dongguan, from 2018 to 2022 were collected. Qualitative statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS 25.0, global and local autocorrelation analysis was performed using ArcGIS 10.8, and spatio-temporal scanning analysis was carried out using SaTScan 10.1 software. Results The average annual incidence of tuberculosis in Dalang Town, Dongguan, from 2018 to 2022 was 46.31/100,000, with statistical difference (χ2trend=102.69, P<0.001), and the overall incidence showed a downward trend. The proportion of male patients was 69.81%, and the median age of onset was 35 years. The average annual incidence rate varied from 18.46/100,000 to 96.69/100,000 among each village(community), and the global spatial autocorrelation Moran I value ranged from -0.0280 to 0.1095; statistical difference were observed in both 2019 and 2021 (P<0.05), indicating spatial aggregation patterns. According to local autocorrelation analysis, high-high cluster and low-high cluster were mostly located in the village(community) at the town center. The spatio-temporal scanning results showed that there was a possible aggregation area, which was mainly distributed in the central village(community) in the town from 2018 to 2019. Conclusion This study explores the characteristics of regional tuberculosis epidemic and spatial and temporal distribution at the village (community) scale in Dalang Town, Dongguan, which can provide some guiding value for the actual prevention and control of tuberculosis.