新型冠状病毒感染脆弱人群危险因素及风险预测

Risk factors and prediction of vulnerable population with COVID-19 infection

关键词:  新型冠状病毒感染  脆弱人群  危险因素

Key words:  COVID-19 infection  vulnerable population  risk factor

摘要:

目的　分析新型冠状病毒感染脆弱人群危险因素分析。方法　收集 201 名 60 岁及以上新冠肺炎脆弱患 者的临床资料，分析住院死亡率的危险因素。结果　201 例 COVID-19 患者中存活 158 例（78.6%），死亡 43 例（21.4%）。 logistic回归分析示C反应蛋白（CRP）、磨玻璃样影、甘油三酯、血小板与淋巴细胞比值（PLR）、甘油三酯-葡萄糖指数 （TyG）、血小板是院内死亡的独立影响因素（P<0.05）。甘油三酯+ CRP +磨玻璃影+血小板+PLR+TyG对脆弱人群院 内死亡的预测价值：曲线下面积AUC为 0.914（95% CI：0.869~0.960，P<0.001），特异性为 0.744，敏感度为 0.943。结论　 COVID-19 脆弱人群院内死亡率与甘油三酯、TyG、磨玻璃样影、CRP、PLR、血小板密切相关。

Abstract:

Objective　To analyze the risk factors for vulnerable COVID-19 patients. Methods　Clinical data of 201 vulnerable COVID-19 patients aged 60 years or more were used to analyze the risk factors for hospitalization mortality. Results　 There were 158 survivals (78.6%) and 43 deaths (21.4%) of 201 cases. Logistic regression analysis showed C-reactive protein (CRP), ground-glass opacity (GGO), triglycerides, platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), triglyceride-glucose index (TyG), and platelets were independent factors for hospital mortality (P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC), specificity and sensitivity of triglycerides + CRP + GGO + platelets + PLR + TyG were 0.914 (95% CI: 0.869-0.960, P<0.001), 0.744, 0.943, respectively for hospital mortality. Conclusion　The high hospital mortality of vulnerable COVID-19 patients is associated with triglycerides, TyG, GGO, CRP, PLR, and platelets.